@Article{CurtarelliSteLorAlcOga:2021:PrMoSc,
               author = "Curtarelli, Marcelo Pedroso and Stech, Jos{\'e} Luiz and 
                         Lorenzzetti, Jo{\~a}o Antonio and Alc{\^a}ntara, Enner Herenio 
                         and Ogashawara, Igor",
          affiliation = "{Funda{\c{c}}{\~a}o CERTI} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)} and 
                         {Leibniz-Institute f{\"u}r Gewasser{\"o}kologie Und 
                         Binnenfscherie}",
                title = "Predicting modeling scenarios of climate change impact on the CO2 
                         emissions from an Amazonian hydroelectric reservoir",
              journal = "Modeling Earth Systems and Environment",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "758",
               number = "1",
                pages = "631--639",
                month = "Mar.",
             keywords = "Carbon dioxide · Hydroelectric reservoirs · Amazon · Climate 
                         changes · Land use and cover changes.",
             abstract = "We simulated the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from a great 
                         Amazonian hydroelectric reservoir under future climate and land 
                         use land cover conditions using a three-dimensional ecological 
                         model. Future scenarios were developed taking into account the 
                         Representatives Concentrations Pathway (RCP) adopted by the 
                         Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth 
                         Assessment Report (AR5). To investigate the possible effects of 
                         future climate and land use changes on CO2 emissions, we compared 
                         our results with a previous study that simulated the carbon 
                         emissions under present climate conditions. The results showed 
                         that under moderate climatic changes scenario associated to the 
                         recuperation of natural land covers in the watershed (i.e., 
                         increase in forestry areas) the CO2 emissions are estimated to be 
                         more than 100% higher than the current emissions in a specific 
                         season. On the other hand, in a more extreme climatic changes 
                         scenario associated to the expansion of agriculture and pasture 
                         areas, the estimates of CO2 emissions along the year decrease of 
                         5% compared to current emissions. Our findings indicate that the 
                         processes such as eutrophication, mixing and stratification of 
                         water column and the water retention time will be key elements 
                         controlling the CO2 emission from Amazonian reservoirs in the 
                         future. We highlight that the CO2 emissions from future planed 
                         Amazonian hydroelectric reservoirs are uncertain and will be 
                         highly dependent of regional climate and LULC changes. Decision 
                         makers must to consider these two important factors in the 
                         environmental impact studies and comparisons with CO2 emission 
                         from other energy sources.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s40808-020-00930-7",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00930-7",
                 issn = "2363-6211",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Curtarelli2021_Article_PredictingModelingScenariosOfC.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}